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Some economic aspects of the Association Agreement

globalresearcheng — Sun, 01 Jun 2014 07:52:13 +0000

The most discussed topic recently is EU-Georgia Association Agreement.

Diversification for a market is very good, especially when EU market is not an ordinary one; it is a market of the richest 500 million people of the planet. The question is, how much ready are we for this market, what is the benefit that we expect or will receive from the Agreement and will signing the Agreement trigger political-economic processes, that instead of improving our poor economy, deteriorate it?

Let’s review the conditions of the Agreement.

From the very beginning I would like to emphasize that I will not be discussing the topics such as standardization, European norms of sanitary and phyto-sanitary, etc. which, as you might be aware, are problematic in our country. I would like to discuss the Agreement only in fiscal direction.

First of all, it is noteworthy that customs duties are abolished within this Agreement, which is good.

The fact that the country will not have to pay customs duties while exporting its product and importing from abroad will result in the decrease of prices (let’s consider that accumulation of less amounts of money in the budget due to abolishment of customs duties will be compensated at the expense of the increased goods turnover), is welcoming. The fact that imported high-quality goods, because of its low prime cost will overwhelm our domestic production is not problematic at this stage.

Well, it will not overwhelm anything as there is nothing to overwhelm. But…. and there emerge many “buts”. As you know friendship is a bilateral type of relationship. Especially, when one of the friends is far stronger and insists to be your friend the intention should be proved by actions.

The list of products, exempt from customs duties, but at the same time taxed by the “market admission tax” while exported, given in the Annex II – B attracts attention.

The idea of the tax is that as Georgian product is cheaper compared to the one produced in the EU, will equal to the price of products on their internal market. In plain words, apple from Gori, Georgia should not be cheaper than the apple from Spain not to “oppress” it.

The list actually covers all the fruit characteristically grown in Georgia and some of the vegetables. Namely: cucumber, tomato, almost every type of citruses, grapes, apple, pear, peach, apricot, cherry, sweet-cherry, plum, etc. Unfortunately pineapple and banana cannot be grown in Georgia due to climate conditions. All the above listed products create profile of our agriculture. This is the Agreement we are going to sign.

As it is known, economy is the base of everything. Ignoring and putting this postulate on the second stage inflicted us a huge damage in the ‘80s. We should not make one and the same mistake twice.

According to surveys currently the number one problem in Georgia is unemployment. The country should be trying to solve this problem in the first place. For finding a solution to this problem as soon as possible, we should analyze the structure of the population of Georgia.

In Georgia the number of village population is high. According to the data provided by Geostat last year, 47% of the whole population live in village. This is especially high indicator. If we want to achieve tangible progress in terms of decreasing unemployment level on the backdrop of the above-given data, model of economic development, intended, in the first place, for involvement of this segment of population should be developed, which should be viable in economic terms and have development prospective.

Based on the above-stated, I consider that it is good, when the government helps its village population through various projects; however, it is not even near to enough. Establishing processing plants for agriculture products and obtaining stabile market for the processed product is necessary. This must be the main economic message for overcoming unemployment, which, on its part, is fully harmonized with the development of small and medium business.

The problem is clearly visible.

Due to Georgia’s current economic development, natural conditions, structural peculiarities of the population, lack of qualification of workforce and other factors, no other option exists. However, one main problem emerges here – the problem of sale’s market.

For developing any direction in economy, sale’s market is necessary. The Government should support national producers in gaining foothold on the export market. The State should ensure admission to and maintenance of sale’s market.

At the end of the ‘80s, selling of every factory in parts started in the country. We have squandered away everything. Economy was not developing. We have also lost the qualified workforce. The country had to import everything. Subjective factors causing the above mentioned, and the people interested in such developments, is another topic of discussion. Though the facts remain to be facts. In 2013, import equaled to USD 8 billion, whereas export was USD 3 billion, plus in this export USD 700 mln.accounted for re-exporting automobiles. Such is the situation that we are having today. Though, from the end of 2013 and starting of 2014 export has revived in the country. We should pay attention to this fact as it is further considered below.

In October, 2012, by the order of the European Commission, modeling of economic effects triggered by the above mentioned Agreement was conducted in the country. According to the research, increase of GDP by 1,7% in the short-term and by 4,3% in the long-term, as well as increase of export by 9% in the short-term and by 12% in the long-term is forecasted.

I think that the fact, that in January-February, 2014 only, export increased by 23% compared to the previous year, speaks itself. The increase is caused by the export on Russian market.

As we can see from the above stated, even the economic effect calculated by European experts does not have surprising effect, when the expectation of people is absolutely different.

Though, as I have mentioned above, generally, diversification of the market and gaining admission on a market of such magnitude and potential is a positive fact. This is unquestionable. But, there is one threat.

The possibility that signing the Agreement will result in problems of exporting our products to Russian market is high, which is bad. It is unfair though real. It was exactly ignoring reality which put us in the current state.

The unfortunate fact is that by today’s condition, if we want development of agriculture and its connection to the relevant processing industry, in order to create employment, it is impossible without Russian market.

So, what shall we do?

Should we not sign the Agreement?

The question should not be put this way. At least, today. This is a political issue.

In parallel with signing Association Agreement between Georgia and EU, the Government should conduct active dialogue with the government of Russia. Otherwise, we may end up in a very hard economic situation as the thesis: “implementation of Association Agreement will yield specific benefit to the citizens of Georgia”, is only an illusion.

In consideration of the Agreement conditions, current and potential future situation in the country and many other factors, it is only desirable.

The European market is totally imbued with the product that creates export profile of Georgia. Plus, on many types of such products tax for equaling the price of our product with theirs is added and there is lack of awareness on our product on Euro-market, etc.

Thus, if we leave alone the product which they did not release from the price with the reason of protecting their own product and look back at, let’s say, wine export from Georgia, we will clearly see that this reviving sector will get back to stagnation and crisis if Russian market closes for it. For example, in 2013, right after partial opening of the Russian market, 44% of the total export of wine went to the Russian market and it was only the beginning.

Thus, the decision on signing the Association Agreement, especially in its current form, cannot be equivocal.

It should be emphasized that the Chapter IV: Trade and issues related to Trade, is unequal for the parties. To leave all the rest alone, the Agreement sets restrictions only for Georgia.

Based on the all above-stated, if we lose the most “important” market in attempting market diversification, it will put us in more difficult situation than we are in today.

To summarize, everything depends on the Government and it is natural that they should bear responsibility in directing general policy of the country.

MamukaChkheidze, Economics expert.

Conference “Ethnos and Policy in North Caucasus-“Circassian Issue”

globalresearcheng — Mon, 27 Jan 2014 15:13:25 +0000

Akhmet Iarlikapov- Chief scientist-employee of Ethno-Political Research Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology Russian Academy of Sciences
The opinion was expressed that the Islamic dimension still exists and is very serious, and even influential in the sense that the Islamic factor has serious affect on developments ongoing in the whole Caucasus region, not only in North but South as well. Today I want to present a little overview on how Islam develops in North Caucasus, Islam development trend in 1989-2013- how it has been developing and in what condition it is now.
Look at the map, as you can see, Georgia borders practically all Islamic region, except Adyghe, which is placed in form of enclave within Krasnodar Krai. Practically the entire north and north-eastern parts of Georgia borders regions populated with Russia’s north CaucasusMuslims.
Islamic part of North Caucasus, before dissolution of the USSR was simple, not complicated, as far as this region is basically populated with Sunnites – clearly divided betweenHanafi and Shafi.
Mixed population was only in North Ossetia includingSufis.Sufis are the followers of mystic-ascetic movement of Islam, which is not within any of the directions of Islam, i.e. it is common movement of Islam, but mostly Sufis were Shafis.
Shiites were only presented in southern part of Dagestan. Majority of them are Azerbaijanis and one Lezghian village Miskinja. By the way, the oldest mosque of Russia, cathedral mosque of Derbent was always Shiite, Shiites and Sufis share ittoday.
In my opinion, very important issue is what was in North Caucasus by the end of Soviet Union. What exactly happened, revival or re-islamizationafter the collapse of Soviet Union? In my view, re-islamization took place in north-west Caucasus; as a matter of fact there was no Islam in north-west Caucasus, i.e. there was high level of secularization, there were lots of nonpracticing Muslims and almost no educated personnel. Actually, people had accepted Islam anew.
They remembered that they were Muslims and would convert again;as for north-east Caucasus, even being under the Soviet rule for 70 years, there still were very strong Sufigroups, Islamic theologians, Islamic system of education still remained, though it was weak and etc. it was retained as a system.
Besides, during deportation years, in cases of deportation of Chechen or Ingush, close ties established between Islamic practitioners and Teips, it grew stronger and thus since 1989 we have been watching the revival of Islam.
In north-west Caucasusforeign missionaries,as a rule Turks,played an important role in revival of Islam. This mainly occurred in Adyghe, but in Kabardino-Balkaria and Circassia there were missionaries from Chechnya and Dagestan and local youth as well, educated abroad. There were no foreign missionaries in the north-west Caucasus; Islam was being thrived withlocal forces plus the youth, educated abroad,contribituted as well.
The link between politics and Islam is very interesting, although under the title “Islamic” were considered severalparties, the only real Islamic political party, which was represented in the region, was Islamic Revival party of the Soviet Union.
Two well-known Dagestanians were represented in the party, the leader of the party-Ahmad-Kadi Akhtaev- Dagestanian, a scientist and also Dagestanians-Abas Kebedov and Bagautdin Magomedov, who were members of the council of Ulama, i.e.members of the council of scientists of this party.
Nevertheless, political activism in the form of political parties could notgain a foothold in the region; Islamic Revival Parties,as well as other short-lived political parties that were set up, could not become popular in the north Caucasus, and finally in 1994 the party collapsed and since then Islamic activism in this form does not exist.
However, there are other forms, for instance Dagestanian Sufis. Murids of Sufi Sheikhs, as political actors, actively participate in the parliamentary elections in Dagestan;governmental authorities are under their influence, especially through those ministers, who express their sympathy towards Sufis.
Sufis are actively holding positions at municipal levels and if not personally, they still influence on decision making, becauseeven head of administration and chief of the police always consider to what these people think and address them for consultations.
But often these people become governors of the village and so on. Such form of political activity integrates local Sufis within local governmental systemquite successfully.
For example, when Islam comes to public space-there are quotations from Quran in Russian language, written on the houses in the city of Makhachkala, so that everybodywill have the opportunity to share Islamic values in such way, this also represents the part of Islamic policy or generally entering into public space. Another example is advertisement of electric-good store with Islamic symbols; it is actively used in public,as Islam has taken very distinctplace in people’s awareness.
But apart from Suficparticipation in politics, there are so called “Salafi” and “Wahhabi” projects. Chechen wars played significant roles, as Chechnya in the awareness of the north-Caucasian Muslims became the first Muslim territory.
Although the first Chechen project had secular character, Chechnya was considered as the best territory for Jihad. Amir Khattab and Basayev talked about it. They had formed special Islamic territory, even outside of Chechnya, in Dagestan so called Kadar zone.
Sharia rule was declared under the command of Amir Jarula. Theyestablished Shariat court and the area had virtually become independent from Russian government. However, theproject could not last, the territory ceased existencedue to the military operations in September 1999.
Other project-Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which was secular after several years of existence transformed from secular into Islamic and consequently, Doku Umarov announced declaration -of Caucasus Emirate in 2007. If Chechen Republic of Ichkeria tried to become perfect state with its- territory, government, ministers and etc. the Caucasus Emirate was in fact terrorist network, which exists only as the Emirate on the internet.
In fact, it is a true network of diverse terrorist cells, which in most cases do not know anything about each other, except that they exist. Now, let’s say a few words about mosaicity of Islamic environment in the north Caucasus.
When we are talking about Islam in the north-Caucasus, we should not forget that it is very fragmented and does not represent one whole. Let’s say traditional Islam- first of all, we do not know traditional Islam, as the united form of traditional Islam does not exist. In Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia it is Sufism. They consider Sufism as traditional Islam, and on other territories there is no Sufism, so it is hard to understand what traditional Islam is.
There is such a misconception that traditional Islam is very peaceful. In fact, in many cases it does not prove to be so, as Sufis that they bring as an example and claim that they are peaceful, still there are several Sufi groups in Dagestan, who recognize legitimacy of armed Jihad against Russia, in other words they state- yes, we shall implement armed Jihad but now we have neither power nor means for it, thus we can’t, we will just have minimum relation with Russian authority, live isolated and then sometime afterwards will have power and carry out armed Jihad.
Therefore, the myth that traditional Islam exists and is peaceful in fact simplifies the image and misleads us. At first we shall realize that it is hard to define and secondly such classifications does not lead to discovering peaceful Islam. We shall seek for peaceful Islam in something else.
Salafist groups are represented in Islamic mosaic…. We say Salafist, in fact it is very complex part. First of all there are so called “Wahhabist”, why so called? Because there are no real Wahhabists in the region.
Real Wahhabists shall understand Hanbali, but they are not Wahhabists in the classical sense of the word. There are so called new Muslims young Jamaats, Dagestanian salafists, who stand completely separate, Madhalit Salafists, Salafists who want to carry out Hijra and thus they have Sheikhs e.g. in Waziristan or somewhere else, in conclusion these setting isdiverse, mobile and very serious and hard discussions take place between Salafists.
Let’s say one of them says: “we shall implement Hijra, we shall resettle” and among them are those who really resettled in Egypt, Turkey and etc. There are others who say: “no we don’t have right to resettle and there is no need for war”. There are those who say: “we shall go to forest” and whole this setting is seething and the discussions are actively going on.
Thus when we talk about Salafists, we shall not be mistaken and say that there are Salafists as unity. Absolutely not. In most cases theseare group of people who havecompletely different interest and understanding on which direction to go.
In this Islamic mosaic is for instance, Nurjular. Russian government considers them Turkish agents. However, these people might be the most peaceful among Muslim groups, as they are mostly busy with reading works of Said Nursi. But they know Turkish language very well as they read works in original. Hizb ut-Tahrir, which appeared in the north-Caucasus very late, approximately in the midst of 2000s and now they actively compete with Salafists.
So called “Krachkovsky’s” – a sect from Quran group, who deem that Quran shall be read in native language. Islam in the north-Caucasus does not represent any unity, anything simple, that can be peacefully handled. We have to deal with totally different groups, who have completely different interests, thus in fact the state has very difficult task.
Now, there is the sense that state tries to forget the old rhetoric, when Islam was divided into traditional and nontraditional.The grounds for dialogue between Sufis and Salafists have been laid.
Although one group was selected from Salafists and Sufis are represented by one group too, aspiration towards dialogue between these groups is very serious. The state tries to support Islamic education in order to ensure that the system, which is developing on other areas of the north-Caucasus to be loyal to the state. Another interesting issue is what else apart from Islam hinders, what goes deep in this Islamic mosaic.
First of all nationalismand, as Nikolay had mentioned in his report, Habzizm, Circassian folk invented religion. In addition, there is a very successful Christianization project in Dagestan, because Pentecostals had achieved great success, about three thousands Christened Dagestanians are Muslims, they work among Muslims, although at the expense of huge losses, for as I think their leader was murdered in 2010, but nevertheless, there are other ideologists who can be successful.
Question: you talked about groups, who believe that Jihad shall be carried out. How they explain necessity of Jihad? What is the reason? Was this thenatural process or was it supported?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: At first, regarding the legitimacy of Jihad, they are based on the arguments of the 19th century, i.e. Shamil’s time and since then they deem that the essence of Russian state has not changed and thus Muslims need armed Jihad in order to release the territory of Islam.
Dagestan is understood as the abode of Islam, which shall not be governed by non-Muslim rulers, accordingly, Jihad is reckoned legitimate by these Sufic groups, although being in minorities they still exist.
As for revival in the 80-ies in Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia, it was Islamic Revival Movement that was coming from below and, actually, there werenot any outside participants in the north-east Caucasus, who could affect on the revival processes.
So those processes were taking place independently, based on internal resources. The north-west Caucasus: it is hard to talk about the independence, as outside participants were indeed more active there and they were generally from abroad, that I talkedabout Turks, the same was happening in Dagestan, Chechnya, preachers who arrived and actively took part in it, as well as local preachers, I mean Soviet Union, i.e preachers from Muslim republics used to arrive there from Tajikistan and etc.
Nana Devdariani: I have such question: Does constitution of Russian Federation recognize parties under national or religious sign? For instance, in our country, such thing can not happen; regional party can not be Islamic party at the same time.
Nikolay Silaev: the constitution does not specify this issue, but there is a law on political parties, which was adopted in the beginning of the 2000s and it prohibits regional and ethnical classifications.
Akhmet Iarlikapov: The laws ban, but it is not the reason why Islamic parties in the north-Caucasus does not exist; they would still exist if people wanted them. People just do not understand this kind of activity. They do not understand what the party is needed for and thus they do not exist.
Question: what is the attitude there towards Christians?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: In fact theattitude towards Christians is different, basically tolerant. Conflict situation arose in Dagestan and only with Protestants, because they conduct very active preaching.
This Proselytism is very active, as Christian texts mainly the Bible is translated into Dagestanian language. Translations are really good and they have good tactics regarding the evangelization of the population. Thus, Protestantism causes negative attitude, however at the initial stage of their activity such open serious alienation did not occur.
Question: and how will the Russian Orthodox Church represent itself?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: I can not tell anything about defined official position of Russian Orthodox Church, but there is an interesting moment in their activity. For instance, active erection of crosses in the entrance of the villages and settlements. This leads to protests from Muslims in Stavropol, Circassia; we can not say anything about Kabardo-Balkaria.
Question: do they hinder construction of the mosques?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: yes, there is resistance when building mosques, but this happens in regions, Stavropol district and so on. Similar problems take place in Krasnodar Krai as well. Authorities also face big problems as they do not allow anyone except Shapsugian villages to build mosques. Thousands of Muslims are in Krasnodar Krai.
These people go to Adyghe villages and settlements for Friday prayers and ultimately the situation in Adyghea is quite tensed…Believers from Krasnodar are very diverse, but ethnically there are Daghestanians, Chechens, Afghans and many others. If there were mosques in Krasnodar, they would stay there but they have to go to Adyghea and the situation in Adhygea very much depends on the impact that comes with the people, the Friday migration creates additional tension in Adyghea.
Question: what are the recent trends of religious directions regarding armed resistance, mainly
Akhmet Iarlikapov: In fact, today Muslim fighters associate themselves with Caucasus Emirate…
Question: I asked about theological directions…
Akhmet Iarlikapov: theological direction is very complicated to define, as they are those Sufis who say that the battle is possible, the Salfists but Salafists completely….
Their theology is simple, i.e. today they slightle enter in theology. Yasin Rasulov was an ideologist who is no longer alive, he was killed. He used to say that today armed Jihad in the north-Caucasus has consistent nature, i.e. it is not over, its main idea and many others share this idea that armed Jihad against Russia is not over yet, it began in 19th century and today exactly the same Jihad continues. This is the main idea.
Question: you have shown us division of Caucasus into western and eastern parts, I will not delve with the details, what threat shall we -the north-Caucasus and Russia, expect?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: thank you for the question, it is simply considered that north-west and north east Caucasus will get far more estranged from each other from the point that north-west Caucasus will mainly be secular and will have less profound character than north-east, i.e. Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan.
Moreover, many experts mention that Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan suffer from civilizational drift, i.e. culturally they become increasingly much more, so to speak middle-easterns… let’s assume, north-west Caucasus, it is much more secular, European concepts and Islam are part of national awareness, but not as much important. For Dagestanian Islam is part of culture, often-predominant part of identity.
Question: Does Islam become mosaic in north Caucasus? How does it respond to the last conclusion?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: yes, but Islam is considered as a whole. Yes, it becomes increasingly mosaic.
Question: how powerful is the Emirate?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: thank you for the question, The Caucasus Emirate represents the only force which now can resist Russian power, but it can resist owing to the fact that it has transformed into very conspirative network, through weak direct links among cells.
It is hard to “disrupt” such a network. Thus it’s hard for Russian government to deal with all things; in addition Emirate does not have mass support of the population. If there would be massive support from the population, the Caucasus Emirate would not be virtual, but would have its own territorial component. But today, it is so for on one hand it is the only opponent strength, but on the other it does not have mass support.
Question: what happens if Emirate gathers them?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: Emirate? Emirate will not be able to completely collect this mosaic and this is the main point that Islam will never be united political power in the north-Caucasus, as it is the mosaic….
Question: and what are the relations are with Turkey?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: Truly, Dagestanian Muslims actually do not have direct contacts with Turkey.
Question: but they are funded…
Akhmet Iarlikapov: if we take the Caucasus Emirate, then today it is self-financed, i.e. they collect donations…one of the moments: they collect so called Zakat. Zakat is religious paymentthat all Muslims are obliged to pay.
But how do they collect them? They threaten and extort moneyfrom businessmen, only in this way…. real Turkish influence almost does not exist. This influence was only in early 90-ies and was swiftly suppressed by Russian government, as they saw threat in it and since then real Turkish impact, especially theological does not exist except very small group of Nurjulars. They are just few people i.e. insignificant small group.
Question: so, they provoke their theological centres and orientations towards middle-east?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: I mean in terms of culture, this is civilized, so people feel more and more comfortable in this environment, than entirely in Russian environment.
Question: one more question, if I don’t bother you, describe the relations between Muslims of north and south Caucasus.
Akhmet Iarlikapov: Sunnite-Shiite relations in north Caucasus nowadays are quite tensed and Sunnites have very sceptical relations with Azerbaijanian secular projects, because the form in which Azerbaijan exists now is not what they wanted….
Question: but do Ordinary Muslims like Azerbaijanians?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: In general, they do not have complaints against each other; the complaints are mainly with the authority of Azerbaijan, as a state but not with ordinary people.
Question: and where do Muslims receive education? Abroad?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: It depends on the region. Let’s take Dagestan, there are 13 Islamic universities in Dagestan and more than 100 madrassah and many Maktabs. Thus majority of Muslims received local education.
There are small group of people, who receiveeducation in Turkey, Syria, Saudi-Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar. Syria was very popular because both Dagestan and Syriaare Shafi regions.
Situation is the same in Chechnya, but they can not point to anybody. They do not represent main acting characters, or those giving orders to what the education system of Dagestan should be like, they are people who received traditional Sufic education.
Question: lately, there is a great effort for islamization of society in Chechnya. Do you think that Chechnya has such prospect in the conditions created by Russia?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: the point is not in perspectives but you have mentioned correctly, Kadyrov carries out islamization of Chechnya, in absolutely calm and regular manner. Thus the thing is not in threat but it is actually done.
But of course, there won’t be separate busses or education in Chechnya, as it needs certain formalities. Nonetheless, islamization process is very seriously carried on including, for example fields such as folk medicine.
He has actually destroyed such kind of activity. Now he has Islamic healing centre in Grozny, where all doctors according to Islam shall cure people by Quran, other things should not exist. So, islamization is going on together with strengthening his personal influence.
Question: Is Quran taught at schools?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: now there are perfect opportunities in schools, thanks to Medvedev, we have brought basics of religious culture and secular ethics. Therefore, Islam is taught in nearly 100 % of Chechen schools and you can study Quran and whatever you wish. Because there is not strict control over how all this is passed down.
Vaso Kapanadze: mosaicity, splitting of society is not accidental and striving towards Middle East countries and those processes that occur there are not accidental.
I think that north-Caucasus is Achilles’ heel for Russia and the national policy towards north Caucasus, the term “Person of Caucasus Nationality” is perception of north-Caucasus people of being secondaryand this contributes to integration.
I remember in the 90-ies, there is such a politologist Pozdniakov, he had notion of national interest and even the perception of this term was not in line with the state interest, which supports disintegration.
Akhmet Iarlikapov: Thank you for the question. Undoubtedly, these things are taught on the background of certain global processes, Muslim world map, Muslim environmentis very global; it is sharply changing and becoming mosaic.
Even in Saudi Arabia itself, where everything is strictly controlled, there is dividing line between Wahabist preachers and boundaries between them becomes much more visible.
Therefore, it’s natural that everything is reflected on the north-Caucasus. As for the north-Caucasus integration, as the heel of Achilles of Russia, I think that on the contrary north-Caucasus is the region that Russia got as a gift, as there are real challenges for Russian statehood, identity and etc.
But at the same time I think that north-Caucasus is an ideal environmentto develope projects in the north-Caucasus itself, including entire political nation of Russia and etc. another thing is when there are too many mistakes in national policy, state rhetoric, on the contrary I deem that in case of the worst-scenario, if Russian federation collapses, north-Caucasus will be the last region to come out from the Russian Federation.
Question: do you have any data on how many Chechen militants are among Syrian insurgents or north-Caucasian in Afghanistan, mostly for which region are they and how do you think is there state practice that fights against these threats in the north-Caucasus?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: I can tell you for sure that they are not thousands. The point is that sometimes the north Caucasians fight on the territory of Syria independently, i.e. they formown independent forces and enclaves, similarly to free Sharia territory as it was for instance in Kadar. They form such enclaves, troops in Syria and struggle.
Unfortunately, I can not name the figures. Of course there are attempts ofresistance, firstly interference to going there and secondly encouraging militants to return, however in my opinion, what is happening now for instance, in Dagestan is actually ineffective, they are trying to work with parents of those people who went there to fight, but work in the threatening way so it’s not the best way.
Cetainly you need other ways, totally different, but so far it is so…. Yes, there are attempts of resistance, to return people but yet very inefficient, I could say completely ineffective.
Question: will it turn into certain threat or not?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: certainly, it is a threat for state. These people fight; they gain warfare practice to wage religiously motivated war.
Question: these emissaries, different people, who fight there-return. Do they affect on the situation inside Russia?
Akhmet Iarlikapov: Russian authority has already dealt with emmisaries and direct outside influence in the north-Caucasus, almost there is no overseas funding. You don’t meet foreign preachers in the region, but don’t forget that phenomenon of “electronic” muftis, when you can access the internet from everywhere and read anything you wish, i.e all those authorities who write about Jihad or about similar things, nowadays it is available through all phone.

Foreign policy of Georgia – if the flow or against the flow (Nino Burjanadze speech)

globalresearcheng — Sun, 18 Aug 2013 07:55:31 +0000

Nana Devdariani: Generally it is unusual a Presidential Candidate making a report at a workshop and thus, I would like to thank Mrs. Nino Burjanadze that she found time during this pre-election campaign period.

Nino Burjanadze: Thank you very much. In consideration of the audience attending this workshop, I would like to say very shortly, in the form of a thesis, what I regard important. In the first place, I want to underline that I mostly agree with what Mr. Tengo said. in this case I listened it as a lecturer to a student. As he concluded his speech with the importance of the field of education, I consider making comment on it necessary.

One of the most important that shall be included not only in a program of a presidential candidate but also in his/her priorities, what shall be most important is the educational field.

Frankly speaking, I do not think that this issue can be resolved only through distributing free textbooks. The most important priority for us should be the content of those textbooks. We all agree that distributing these textbooks free is important but I would still say that free textbooks should be given only to those children who are in need of this.

Level of education is important, including during implementation of foreign priorities as long as playing on patriotic feelings is easy. The emotion what Tengo mentioned in his speech: becoming bold with the hope to enter NATO, this emotion is easier to be triggered in sincere, patriot. though less educated people. However, it is more difficult with educated people, who will have many questions.

I think, the ruling political power in our country transformed the educational system so that not to be raised educated generation as they did it in regard with elimination of social stratum with average income. Let’s take a Law on Plea Bargain as an example, which literally destroyed half of the population of Georgia. However, frankly speaking, I was one of the happiest persons when we were approving this law as it is one of the civilized, human laws that the Parliament may approve but use of this law is another issue. I could not really imagine that this law would be used for terrorizing hundreds and thousands of families. My opinion in regard with this law was that we had to approve it. I could not understand why should we send a person who does not endanger society to prison. On the other hand – it is a sense of responsibility in a person when he/she gives financial commitment to his/her family because of his/her incorrect/illegal action.

If the person thinks soundly, he/she will not commit the same crime or illegal action. How can a state use a noble law for cruel intentions.

As for foreign priorities, I think that asserting that we are not a pro-Russian power and are not planning to make Georgia province of Russia, is unserious….. I can assure you that this will be one of our mottos. We are true pro-Georgian power the main objective of which is implementation of interests of Georgia and considering interests of Georgia in the first place.

It is also understandable that we cannot imagine ourselves on a, let’s say, separate island, which nobody touches. Georgia is not a state out of geopolitical and geostrategic space and we shall consider the reality around us.

We are asked: Do you think that Russia will concede Abkhazia and Ossetia and its interests in Georgia, our answer is that we do not have expected it from Russia and we all understand that Russia is one of the super-states and big players, especially in this region. It will always remain a state that has serious political interests not only in its surrounding region but further regions as well and it will always try to accomplish its interests. It is normal. We don’t need to look at it with history. However, we need to try to make such rational steps that will disable Russia to make such actions that benefit only its interests.

It is, definitely, is not simple though a 1999 OSCE Istanbul summit was mentioned here as an example. I was participating in the negotiation process and attended signing of the Istanbul Declaration. I would never have imagined even one week before that such document would be signed. We thought until the very last moment that it would not be signed, but it did not happen. Georgian diplomacy did a great job then though we don’t think that it’s only our merit. We made wise use of that political moment then. Such approach shall become main rising point of our politics. We should not hit the wall that we know, will destroy us; we need to either find a roundabout or another way.

I reckon that we have quite serious prospectives of relationship with Russia. There are a number of directions where Russian and Georgia interests differ. It is, in the first place, peace in the Caucasus region. I disagree with the people who say that we have to wait a bit longer, Russia will dissolve and and everything will be in its order. When I was in the power Iused to tell them that dissolution of Russia with the form they were dreaming of, would cause such cataclisms throughout the World that may ignite such fire that we will never be able to escape. Thus dissolution of Russia is not in our interest. Russia being stabile and controlling its own territory is in our interest. Chaotic situation is not in our interest.

Chaotic situation and volatility on the Russian border is completely unacceptable in the North Caucasus. One of the important factors, on which negotiation with Russia may be based on, in my opinion, is our common interest of stability in the Caucasus region. In this regard we have quite serious mechanisms of cooperation; I also don’t think that either they will give us or we should give them something as a gift. Diplomacy and negotiations is the process from which we may benefit with serious positive results.

I also differ with the opinion that Russia is interested in opening its market for us; however it is a very important issues and we need to take rational steps in this direction as well. One of the serious issues will be so-called “Eurasian Union” as well. I can tell you that Georgia’s joining this union is not obligatory, while discussing this issue some very interesting details, denoting how economically profitable joining this Union might be for the member states. However, making decision about joining is only up to us.

I would like to point out one thing: We should not equivocally reject either NATO, or Eurasian Union. We need to analyze the situation and consider which organization with and which direction to cooperate and make a decision only after it. You might pay attention to the TV show with Mr. David Paichadze, when he posed a question of neutrality in an intriguing manner. Neutrality is an ideal position for the country like Georgia, if we can achieve neutrality at all. By the way, I had the same position in regard with neutrality when I was a Chairperson of the Parliament of Georgia. Another issue is how much it is possible. Neutrality cannot be a negative postion.

Even in the middle of Europe, let’s take Switzerland and Austria, neutrality was an achievement for them.

I think my position is quite clearin regard with NATO. I would be fine if we were NATO member country and used the chance that the Baltic States used back then. However we lost that chance. This is the fact that we have to accept. We lost this chance several times. First in 1995, then in 2000 in 2005 and in 2008 as well. I think that it is actually unachievable. We should call everything its name. Today we are facing a choice: either NATO or our lost territories.

NATO is not going to accept us. My major is international law and I am well aware of regulations, documents, international practice and internal negotiations. Nobody is going to accept us in NATO when there is a Russian military base on the territory on 40 min drive from Tbilisi. We have to either refuse it or we do not have the prospective to be accepted to NATO. Besides, Mr. Tengiz Pkhaladze mentioned the issue of borders. The actual circumstance is that we have resolved the border issue only with Turkey. It is a Soviet period border. We have unresolved border issue with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia and if a process of serious negotiations does not start and political will to direct this process correctly, we will be in a very disadvantageous position.

As for participation in ISAF type of operations, in my opinion we should be participating but I think we should be receiving not only support but serious dividends for the country as well. In particular, starting from salary: if a US soldier receives $ 10 000, Gerogian soldier should not be receiving $ 700. It should be giving us serious political dividends not only mere statements supporting territorial integrity of Georgia. It is a negotiation process which should be used properly.

I agree with Mr. Ramaz Sakvarelidze on the issue that we have neither internal nor foreign policy. Foreign policy does not exist. The ruling party is repeating the statements of National Movements and. I beg apology, they are doing it in quite untalented manner. I don’t really understand why visits to Brazil, Argentina and Japan are priority. These are not priorities of our country’s foreign policy. Diminishing the number of staff in Ukraine, unresolved fate of negotiations with Kazakstan, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia…. it all means that we do not have foreign policy at all.

Irakli Ubilava: I cannot recall any country where the US Ambassador attends the Security Council sittings.

Nino Burjanadze: When I was in the ruling party it did not happen.

Rusa Mumladze-Avaliani: You are saying that you cannot recall non of the cases?

Nino Burjanadze: When Mr. John Bass was appointed as an Ambassador I was not in power any more. Such things did not happen neither in the period of Mr. Richard Miles or during Shevardnadze’s period.

Irakli Ubilava:In regard with amendments in the Constitution… I remember that these amendments were finally decided when Mr. Norland went to the Parliament….. Can we still talke about independence after such example?

Nino Burjanadze: In my opinion, in the best case this is a restricted sogvreignity, which is quite well-known status in the international law. I canot recall not a single case US Ambassador attending the Security Council sittings when I was in the government. I cannot either remember what was said about May 26 as if FBI representatives were sitting and watching and assessing whether the punitive action was well or badly planned. I want to tell you that the Government was far more independnent during Saakashvili’s period than it is today.

I remember when in many cases Giga Bokeria, Saakashvili objected to the position of the US President when their opinions did not coincide. In regard with “Imedi” TV Mrs. Condolisa Rise called three times and said that it would be better if we opened the TV. I was acting President then. I talked to her twice and tolde her that if would be better if she called Saakashvili personally as my orders were not fulfilled. Neither the Prosecutor’s Office nor the Governors.

Now the representatives of the former government members make statements that the acting government shall not be making legislative amendments without first receiving the Venice Commission conclusion. I remember that in 2010, when the Government made amendments to the Constitution, Mr. Gilauri was in the US in an official visit. He and Mrs. Hillary Clinton were on TV where Mrs. Clinton recommended not to adopt the amendments without prior conclusion from the Venice Commission as there were serious problems in the draft.

Despite this they voted the amendments the next day and adopted it. We had the situation when the Minister of Foreign Affairs during the Russia-Georgia war was the citizen of Russia and he was calling me a Russia’s spy…. Well, he did not dare it then; he started it later.

Question: Shall Georgia resinstate diplomatic relationships with Russia?

Nino Burjanadze: We have to take that course. We cannot and should not restart diplomatic relations. Our steps should be responded with the relevant steps from them. We should not accept anything unconditionally.

Georgia needs modern comprehensive doctrine on national security.

Condition that we inherited from the previous government is alarming for the internal as well as foreign threats of the state.

Revealing the threats the the country is facing, sharply denoting the goals of the country and defining actual mechanisms for achieving these goals is necessary.
In order to ensure the country’s security policy preparation of relevant conceptual base, covering priority strategic interest of the country, principles of international law, relevant transparency of security policy in consideration of legitimit interests of partner and neighbouring countries, coherent implementation of the state policy and provision of relevant staff is necessary. Georgia’s independence and sovereignity is significantly weak currently. The country cannot plan and implement its sovereign policy.

Prestige of the Government of Georgia and the positions of the state as a whole on the international arena have deteriorated. Russia is shifting the conflict zone borders within the territory of Georgia. There is a military presence of a foreign state and quasi-states on the territory of Georgia. Demarcation and delimitation of state frontiers with three neighbouring states have not been implemented yet.
Instead of being formed as an object of international relations system Georgia should be formed as its subject. Our basic principle iun the field of security should become preventive diplomacy. With the purpose of improving the country’s security avanturism in international relations should be inadmissible. Georgia should become a space of generalizing interests of big states instead of becoming a shooting ground for their interests. Deepening relationship with NATO should not be directed towards legitimate interests of a third country; it should be serving to improving to strengthening security in the region. Normalization of relations with Russia is necessary.

Georgia should not encourage threats to Russia’s national security. Georgia should make the existing relationships closer with neighbouring states. Georgia’s actions should be directed towards establishing peace and stability in the region.

Current state of relations with Russia is absolutely unclear; there is no strategy and an “action plan” for normalizing relations. Unresolved steps from the Government in this direction make the fake-impression of warming relationships with Russia while at the same time, a new “border” appears in the middle of our territory.

Initiating a large-scale negotiations with Russia is necessary (including not only about opening their market for Georgia product but on acute issues as well). Seps towards abolishing visa regime with Russia for Georgian citizens should be made. Russian market should be open broadly and in a stabile manner for Georgian product. On its part, optimal usage of Russian market will give significant incentive to the economy of Georgia and development of Business enterprise within the country.

We need to start large-scale negotiations with Russia about restoration our country’s territorial integrity. We need to manage that Russia played positive role in regulation of the conflict with Abkhazia and Ossetia. It should result in honourable return of IDPs to Abkhazeti and Samachablo. Through carrying out coherent policy we will return Abkhazia and Ossetia; Russia should be assured that Georgia is not the enemy and peace and stability in the Caucasus is the number one priority for Georgia as well.